![]() ![]() Hamlin won the spring race while Larson finished second and Byron third. Compare, for example, the drivers with the top-three records at Kansas: Hamlin, Byron and Larson. This graph highlights each driver’s strengths and weaknesses. It includes slow pit stops, unscheduled pit stops (e.g., for loose wheels or mechanical issues), pit road contact and minor contact on track that didn’t cause an accident but did cost the driver positions. The last column, 2023 non-caution incident avoidance, measures misfortunes that don’t cause cautions. I include before-race penalties that make a driver start from the rear of the field. ![]() I exclude intentional penalties, like pitting before pit road is open after a driver had an accident. The 2023 penalty avoidance column is based on the average percentage of races in which the team did not incur a penalty. The 2023 incident avoidance column ranks the average percentage of races in which a driver avoids involvement in a caution-causing incident. After him Chris Buescher, Martin Truex Jr. Corey LaJoie, who didn’t make the playoffs, is the only driver to have finished every race. The 2023 race completion rate column reflects the percentage of races a driver finished. I don’t include data from before stage racing, and I weight recent data more. They combine results from this year, last year and from 2017-21. The first two columns are weighted average finishes. ![]() But I also include information on how well each driver has done finishing races, avoiding accidents and not incurring penalties. While it is impossible to predict which driver will have an accident or penalty ruin his shot at a win, it is possible to factor in a drivers’ propensity for getting in accidents and incurring penalties.įor this week’s race, I compiled the usual stats, such as average finish at Kansas and at Kansas’ comparison tracks, Michigan and Las Vegas. Bubba Wallace, one point out of the last transfer spot to the next round, must take advantage this week at a track that has historically played to his strengths. Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Kevin Harvick hope to rebound from last week’s loose wheels, slow pit stops and bad luck. Kansas could be Denny Hamlin’s race to lose, but don’t count out a run for the checkered flag by last week’s winner Kyle Larson, or a run from points leader William Byron. ![]()
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